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Tolmin vs Adria — 3. SNL - West 2020

Tolmin
Tolmin
FT
2 – 0
Adria
Adria
6/9/20213. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - Relegation Round - 7Stadion Na Brajdi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Tolmin48%
×Draw24%
Adria28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tolmin
1.69
Adria
1.22

Tolmin creates 39% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 9 away

creates per match

Tolmin
2.17
Adria
1.44

allows per match

Tolmin
1.00
Adria
1.22

finishing

Tolmin+0.00on par
Adria+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tolmin ↓

Adria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tolmin or draw
72%
Tolmin or Adria
76%
Draw or Adria
52%

Winning margin

Tolmin wins by 2+
26%
Adria wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tolmin 1+ goals
82%
Tolmin 2+ goals
50%
Tolmin 3+ goals
24%
Adria 1+ goals
70%
Adria 2+ goals
34%
Adria 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tolmin (draw refunded)
64%
Adria (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tolmin at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Adria away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tolmin attack 2.17 + Adria defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.69

Adria attack 1.44 + Tolmin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tolmin scores more
48%
level
24%
Adria scores more
28%

Tolmin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tolmin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. SNL - West: Tolmin 2–0 Adria

Tolmin beat Adria 2-0 in 3. SNL - West on June 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Na Brajdi in Tolmin.