Toledo 1–0 Villarrobledo: Result & Stats

Toledo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Villarrobledo

5/5/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 33Estadio Municipal Salto del Caballo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Toledo58%

×Draw25%

Villarrobledo17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ToledoExpected goals in this matchVillarrobledo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.72

Toledo

1.60

Villarrobledo

0.72

Toledo creates 122% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 83 away

1.84

creates per match

0.88

0.55

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Toledo

1.84

Villarrobledo

0.88

allows per match

Toledo

0.55

Villarrobledo

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Toledo+0.00on par

Villarrobledo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toledo ↓

Villarrobledo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Toledo or draw

83%

Toledo or Villarrobledo

75%

Draw or Villarrobledo

42%

Winning margin

Toledo wins by 2+

32%

Villarrobledo wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Toledo 1+ goals

80%

Toledo 2+ goals

47%

Toledo 3+ goals

22%

Villarrobledo 1+ goals

51%

Villarrobledo 2+ goals

16%

Villarrobledo 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Toledo (draw refunded)

78%

Villarrobledo (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toledo at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.55 · 93 matches

Villarrobledo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.36 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toledo attack 1.84 + Villarrobledo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.60

Villarrobledo attack 0.88 + Toledo defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Toledo scores more

58%

level

25%

Villarrobledo scores more

17%

Toledo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Toledo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff