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Toledo vs Talavera II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Toledo
Toledo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Talavera II
Talavera II
10/2/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 4Estadio Municipal Salto del Caballo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Toledo72%
×Draw18%
Talavera II10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toledo
2.16
Talavera II
0.64

Toledo creates 238% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 15 away

creates per match

Toledo
1.84
Talavera II
0.73

allows per match

Toledo
0.55
Talavera II
2.47

finishing

Toledo+0.00on par
Talavera II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toledo ↓

Talavera II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Toledo or draw
90%
Toledo or Talavera II
82%
Draw or Talavera II
28%

Winning margin

Toledo wins by 2+
48%
Talavera II wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Toledo 1+ goals
88%
Toledo 2+ goals
63%
Toledo 3+ goals
36%
Talavera II 1+ goals
47%
Talavera II 2+ goals
14%
Talavera II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Toledo (draw refunded)
88%
Talavera II (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toledo at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.55 · 93 matches

Talavera II away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toledo attack 1.84 + Talavera II defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.16

Talavera II attack 0.73 + Toledo defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Toledo scores more
72%
level
18%
Talavera II scores more
10%

Toledo at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Toledo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Toledo vs Talavera II

Toledo beat Talavera II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Salto del Caballo in Toledo.