Toledo 0–3 Quintanar del Rey: Result & Stats

Toledo

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Quintanar del Rey

9/18/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 2Estadio Municipal Salto del Caballo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Toledo49%

×Draw27%

Quintanar del Rey24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ToledoExpected goals in this matchQuintanar del Rey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.89

Toledo

1.39

Quintanar del Rey

0.89

Toledo creates 56% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 94 away

1.84

creates per match

1.23

0.55

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Toledo

1.84

Quintanar del Rey

1.23

allows per match

Toledo

0.55

Quintanar del Rey

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Toledo+0.00on par

Quintanar del Rey+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toledo ↓

Quintanar del Rey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Toledo or draw

76%

Toledo or Quintanar del Rey

73%

Draw or Quintanar del Rey

51%

Winning margin

Toledo wins by 2+

23%

Quintanar del Rey wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Toledo 1+ goals

75%

Toledo 2+ goals

40%

Toledo 3+ goals

16%

Quintanar del Rey 1+ goals

59%

Quintanar del Rey 2+ goals

22%

Quintanar del Rey 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Toledo (draw refunded)

67%

Quintanar del Rey (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toledo at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.55 · 93 matches

Quintanar del Rey away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.93 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toledo attack 1.84 + Quintanar del Rey defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.39

Quintanar del Rey attack 1.23 + Toledo defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Toledo scores more

49%

level

27%

Quintanar del Rey scores more

24%

Toledo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Toledo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff