Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Quintanar del Rey vs Toledo — Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs 2022

Quintanar del Rey
Quintanar del Rey
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Toledo
Toledo
6/2/2024Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offsTercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstadio San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Quintanar del Rey48%
×Draw30%
Toledo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quintanar del Rey
1.25
Toledo
0.75

Quintanar del Rey creates 67% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Quintanar del Rey
1.50
Toledo
0.75

allows per match

Quintanar del Rey
0.75
Toledo
1.00

finishing

Quintanar del Rey+0.00on par
Toledo+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quintanar del Rey ↓

Toledo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Quintanar del Rey or draw
78%
Quintanar del Rey or Toledo
70%
Draw or Toledo
52%

Winning margin

Quintanar del Rey wins by 2+
22%
Toledo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Quintanar del Rey 1+ goals
71%
Quintanar del Rey 2+ goals
36%
Quintanar del Rey 3+ goals
13%
Toledo 1+ goals
53%
Toledo 2+ goals
17%
Toledo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Quintanar del Rey (draw refunded)
68%
Toledo (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quintanar del Rey at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Toledo away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quintanar del Rey attack 1.50 + Toledo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Toledo attack 0.75 + Quintanar del Rey defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Quintanar del Rey scores more
48%
level
30%
Toledo scores more
22%

Quintanar del Rey at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Quintanar del Rey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs: Quintanar del Rey 1–0 Toledo

Quintanar del Rey beat Toledo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs on June 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio San Marcos in Quintanar del Rey.