Toledo 1–3 PSTC Procopense: Result & Stats

Toledo

FT

1 – 3

PSTC Procopense

5/4/2022

Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Municipal 14 de Dezembro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Toledo39%

×Draw28%

PSTC Procopense32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ToledoExpected goals in this matchPSTC Procopense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.07

Toledo

1.21

PSTC Procopense

1.07

Toledo creates 13% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

0.86

creates per match

1.00

1.14

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Toledo

0.86

PSTC Procopense

1.00

allows per match

Toledo

1.14

PSTC Procopense

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Toledo+0.00on par

PSTC Procopense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toledo ↓

PSTC Procopense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Toledo or draw

68%

Toledo or PSTC Procopense

72%

Draw or PSTC Procopense

61%

Winning margin

Toledo wins by 2+

17%

PSTC Procopense wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Toledo 1+ goals

70%

Toledo 2+ goals

34%

Toledo 3+ goals

12%

PSTC Procopense 1+ goals

66%

PSTC Procopense 2+ goals

29%

PSTC Procopense 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Toledo (draw refunded)

55%

PSTC Procopense (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toledo at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

PSTC Procopense away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toledo attack 0.86 + PSTC Procopense defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.21

PSTC Procopense attack 1.00 + Toledo defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Toledo scores more

39%

level

28%

PSTC Procopense scores more

32%

Toledo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Toledo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff