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Toledo vs Guadalajara II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Toledo
Toledo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guadalajara II
Guadalajara II
A. Rosell 61'
2/15/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 22Estadio Municipal Salto del Caballo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Toledo63%
×Draw24%
Guadalajara II13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toledo
1.60
Guadalajara II
0.57

Toledo creates 181% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 17 away

creates per match

Toledo
1.84
Guadalajara II
0.59

allows per match

Toledo
0.55
Guadalajara II
1.35

finishing

Toledo+0.00on par
Guadalajara II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toledo ↓

Guadalajara II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Toledo or draw
87%
Toledo or Guadalajara II
76%
Draw or Guadalajara II
37%

Winning margin

Toledo wins by 2+
35%
Guadalajara II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Toledo 1+ goals
80%
Toledo 2+ goals
47%
Toledo 3+ goals
22%
Guadalajara II 1+ goals
43%
Guadalajara II 2+ goals
11%
Guadalajara II 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Toledo (draw refunded)
83%
Guadalajara II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toledo at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.55 · 93 matches

Guadalajara II away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toledo attack 1.84 + Guadalajara II defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.60

Guadalajara II attack 0.59 + Toledo defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Toledo scores more
63%
level
24%
Guadalajara II scores more
13%

Toledo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Toledo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'
A. Rosell

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Toledo 1–0 Guadalajara II

Toledo beat Guadalajara II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on February 15, 2026.

Goals: A. Rosell (61').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Salto del Caballo in Toledo.