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Toledo vs Cazalegas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Toledo
Toledo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Cazalegas
Cazalegas
1/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 18Estadio Municipal Salto del Caballo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Toledo61%
×Draw23%
Cazalegas15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toledo
1.73
Cazalegas
0.73

Toledo creates 137% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 51 away

creates per match

Toledo
1.84
Cazalegas
0.90

allows per match

Toledo
0.55
Cazalegas
1.61

finishing

Toledo+0.00on par
Cazalegas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toledo ↓

Cazalegas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Toledo or draw
85%
Toledo or Cazalegas
77%
Draw or Cazalegas
39%

Winning margin

Toledo wins by 2+
35%
Cazalegas wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Toledo 1+ goals
82%
Toledo 2+ goals
52%
Toledo 3+ goals
25%
Cazalegas 1+ goals
52%
Cazalegas 2+ goals
17%
Cazalegas 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Toledo (draw refunded)
80%
Cazalegas (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toledo at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.55 · 93 matches

Cazalegas away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.61 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toledo attack 1.84 + Cazalegas defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.73

Cazalegas attack 0.90 + Toledo defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Toledo scores more
61%
level
23%
Cazalegas scores more
15%

Toledo at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Toledo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Toledo 0–2 Cazalegas

Cazalegas beat Toledo 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Salto del Caballo in Toledo.