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Toledo vs Atlético Ibañés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Toledo
Toledo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Ibañés
Atlético Ibañés
12/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 16Estadio Municipal Salto del Caballo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Toledo54%
×Draw26%
Atlético Ibañés20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toledo
1.50
Atlético Ibañés
0.81

Toledo creates 85% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 30 away

creates per match

Toledo
1.84
Atlético Ibañés
1.07

allows per match

Toledo
0.55
Atlético Ibañés
1.17

finishing

Toledo+0.00on par
Atlético Ibañés+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toledo ↓

Atlético Ibañés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Toledo or draw
80%
Toledo or Atlético Ibañés
74%
Draw or Atlético Ibañés
46%

Winning margin

Toledo wins by 2+
28%
Atlético Ibañés wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Toledo 1+ goals
78%
Toledo 2+ goals
44%
Toledo 3+ goals
19%
Atlético Ibañés 1+ goals
56%
Atlético Ibañés 2+ goals
19%
Atlético Ibañés 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Toledo (draw refunded)
73%
Atlético Ibañés (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toledo at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.55 · 93 matches

Atlético Ibañés away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toledo attack 1.84 + Atlético Ibañés defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.50

Atlético Ibañés attack 1.07 + Toledo defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Toledo scores more
54%
level
26%
Atlético Ibañés scores more
20%

Toledo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Toledo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Toledo 3–1 Atlético Ibañés

Toledo beat Atlético Ibañés 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on December 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Salto del Caballo in Toledo.