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Tokyo Verdy vs Yokohama FC — J1 League 2018

Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
5/6/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 15Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Tokyo Verdy48%
×Draw26%
Yokohama FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokyo Verdy
1.51
Yokohama FC
1.03

Tokyo Verdy creates 47% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 72 away

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.17
Yokohama FC
0.78

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.28
Yokohama FC
1.85

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par
Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Yokohama FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw
74%
Tokyo Verdy or Yokohama FC
74%
Draw or Yokohama FC
52%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
24%
Yokohama FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
78%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
44%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
19%
Yokohama FC 1+ goals
64%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
28%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
65%
Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.17 + Yokohama FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.51

Yokohama FC attack 0.78 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more
48%
level
26%
Yokohama FC scores more
26%

Tokyo Verdy at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tokyo Verdy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Tokyo Verdy 2–0 Yokohama FC

Tokyo Verdy beat Yokohama FC 2-0 in J1 League on May 6, 2025.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Tokyo.