Tokyo Verdy vs Yokohama F. Marinos

Tokyo Verdy

Preview

11:00

Yokohama F. Marinos

3/6/2027

J1 League · Round 24Ajinomoto Stadium

Big match

40%

Yokohama F. Marinos

model favours

35%25%40%

Tokyo Verdy score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

54%

over 2.5 goals

57%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Tokyo Verdy35%

×Draw25%

Yokohama F. Marinos40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tokyo VerdyExpected goals in this matchYokohama F. Marinos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.48

Tokyo Verdy

1.35

Yokohama F. Marinos

1.48

Yokohama F. Marinos creates 10% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 152 away

1.17

creates per match

1.67

1.28

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy

1.17

Yokohama F. Marinos

1.67

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy

1.28

Yokohama F. Marinos

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Yokohama F. Marinos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Yokohama F. Marinos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw

60%

Tokyo Verdy or Yokohama F. Marinos

75%

Draw or Yokohama F. Marinos

65%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+

15%

Yokohama F. Marinos wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals

74%

Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals

39%

Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals

15%

Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals

77%

Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals

43%

Yokohama F. Marinos 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)

46%

Yokohama F. Marinos (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

Yokohama F. Marinos away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.53 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.17 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.35

Yokohama F. Marinos attack 1.67 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more

35%

level

25%

Yokohama F. Marinos scores more

40%

Yokohama F. Marinos at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Yokohama F. Marinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Yokohama F. Marinos score first in only 18% of matches
Style contrast — Tokyo Verdy play Defensively solid, Yokohama F. Marinos Direct / counter-attacking

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Tokyo Verdy

Defensively solid

Yokohama F. Marinos

Direct / counter-attacking

47%Possession44%

76%Pass accuracy71%

10.2Shots10.9

0.88xGBiggest gap1.21

Tokyo VerdyYokohama F. Marinos

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2

Tokyo Verdy

1

Draws

3

Yokohama F. Marinos

Avg goals: 3BTTS: 50%

0–62–31–00–02–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Verdy

LDLWD

Marinos

DWDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff