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Tokyo Verdy vs V-varen Nagasaki — J1 League 2018

Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
Preview
10:00
V-varen Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
5/22/2027J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 36Ajinomoto Stadium
Big match
43%
Tokyo Verdy
model favours
43%26%31%

Tokyo Verdy score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Tokyo Verdy43%
×Draw26%
V-varen Nagasaki31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokyo Verdy
1.42
V-varen Nagasaki
1.16

Tokyo Verdy creates 22% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 27 away

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.17
V-varen Nagasaki
1.04

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.28
V-varen Nagasaki
1.67

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par
V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

V-varen Nagasaki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw
69%
Tokyo Verdy or V-varen Nagasaki
74%
Draw or V-varen Nagasaki
57%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
21%
V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
76%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
41%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
17%
V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals
69%
V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals
32%
V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
58%
V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

V-varen Nagasaki away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.17 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.04 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more
43%
level
26%
V-varen Nagasaki scores more
31%

Tokyo Verdy at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tokyo Verdy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • V-varen Nagasaki win just 10% against the top half (vs 47% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Verdy
LDLWD
Nagasaki
LWWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tokyo Verdy host V-varen Nagasaki

May 22, 2027: Tokyo Verdy take on V-varen Nagasaki in J1 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tokyo Verdy host V-varen Nagasaki at Ajinomoto Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.