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Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — J1 League 2018

Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
8/23/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 27Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Tokyo Verdy33%
×Draw29%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokyo Verdy
1.06
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy
0.94
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.12

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.20
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.18

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.39scores more
Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.48scores more

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw
62%
Tokyo Verdy or Sanfrecce Hiroshima
71%
Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima
67%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
13%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
65%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
29%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
9%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals
69%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals
32%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
46%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.20 · 6 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.18 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.94 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.12 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more
33%
level
29%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more
38%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Tokyo Verdy 0–3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Sanfrecce Hiroshima beat Tokyo Verdy 3-0 in J1 League on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Tokyo.