Tokyo Verdy vs Matsumoto Yamaga — J2 League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 66+ matches
Tokyo Verdy44%
Matsumoto Yamaga29%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Tokyo Verdy creates 30% more chances
Season form · 131 home / 66 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Tokyo Verdy ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.08 · 131 matches
Matsumoto Yamaga away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 66 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Tokyo Verdy attack 1.36 + Matsumoto Yamaga defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35
Matsumoto Yamaga attack 1.00 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Tokyo Verdy at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Tokyo Verdy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Tokyo Verdy host Matsumoto Yamaga on Wednesday, 19 August 2020 at 10:00. The match is part of the J2 League 2018/2019 season.
J2 League: Tokyo Verdy 3–0 Matsumoto Yamaga
Tokyo Verdy beat Matsumoto Yamaga 3-0 in J2 League on August 19, 2020.
Goals: R. Yamashita (68'), S. Inoue (73'), J. Koike (84').
The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Chōfu.