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Tokyo Verdy vs Matsumoto Yamaga — J2 League 2018

Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Matsumoto Yamaga
Matsumoto Yamaga
3/11/2018J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 3Ajinomoto Stadium (Chōfu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Tokyo Verdy44%
×Draw27%
Matsumoto Yamaga29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokyo Verdy
1.35
Matsumoto Yamaga
1.04

Tokyo Verdy creates 30% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 66 away

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.36
Matsumoto Yamaga
1.00

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.08
Matsumoto Yamaga
1.33

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par
Matsumoto Yamaga+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Matsumoto Yamaga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw
71%
Tokyo Verdy or Matsumoto Yamaga
73%
Draw or Matsumoto Yamaga
56%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
20%
Matsumoto Yamaga wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
74%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
39%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
15%
Matsumoto Yamaga 1+ goals
65%
Matsumoto Yamaga 2+ goals
28%
Matsumoto Yamaga 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
60%
Matsumoto Yamaga (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.08 · 132 matches

Matsumoto Yamaga away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.36 + Matsumoto Yamaga defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Matsumoto Yamaga attack 1.00 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more
44%
level
27%
Matsumoto Yamaga scores more
29%

Tokyo Verdy at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tokyo Verdy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Tokyo Verdy 2–1 Matsumoto Yamaga

Tokyo Verdy beat Matsumoto Yamaga 2-1 in J2 League on March 11, 2018.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium (Chōfu).