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Tokyo Verdy vs Kashiwa Reysol — J1 League 2018

Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
Preview
10:00
Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol
8/14/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 2Ajinomoto Stadium
Big match
48%
Kashiwa Reysol
model favours
26%26%48%

Tokyo Verdy score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Tokyo Verdy26%
×Draw26%
Kashiwa Reysol48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokyo Verdy
1.01
Kashiwa Reysol
1.48

Kashiwa Reysol creates 47% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy
0.94
Kashiwa Reysol
1.77

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.20
Kashiwa Reysol
1.08

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.39scores more
Kashiwa Reysol+0.23scores more

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Kashiwa Reysol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw
52%
Tokyo Verdy or Kashiwa Reysol
74%
Draw or Kashiwa Reysol
74%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
9%
Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
64%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
27%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
8%
Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals
77%
Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals
43%
Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
35%
Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.20 · 6 matches

Kashiwa Reysol away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.94 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.77 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more
26%
level
26%
Kashiwa Reysol scores more
48%

Kashiwa Reysol at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 40% of Kashiwa Reysol’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Style contrast — Tokyo Verdy play Defensively solid, Kashiwa Reysol Attack-heavy

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Tokyo Verdy
Defensively solid
Kashiwa Reysol
Attack-heavy
47%Possession54%
76%Pass accuracy81%
10.2Shots13.7
0.88xGBiggest gap1.64
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Tokyo VerdyKashiwa Reysol

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

4
Tokyo Verdy
2
Draws
2
Kashiwa Reysol
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 38%
1–02–10–30–03–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Verdy
LDLWD
Reysol
LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tokyo Verdy face Kashiwa Reysol (J1 League)

J1 League returns with Tokyo Verdy hosting Kashiwa Reysol. Match starts August 14, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Tokyo Verdy host Kashiwa Reysol at Ajinomoto Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.