Kashiwa Reysol 2–3 Tokyo Verdy: Result & Stats

Kashiwa Reysol

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Tokyo Verdy

8/31/2024

J1 League · Round 29SANKYO FRONTIER Kashiwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Kashiwa Reysol41%

×Draw28%

Tokyo Verdy32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kashiwa ReysolExpected goals in this matchTokyo Verdy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.11

Kashiwa Reysol

1.29

Tokyo Verdy

1.11

Kashiwa Reysol creates 16% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 46 away

1.29

creates per match

0.85

1.37

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Kashiwa Reysol

1.29

Tokyo Verdy

0.85

allows per match

Kashiwa Reysol

1.37

Tokyo Verdy

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kashiwa Reysol+0.00on par

Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashiwa Reysol ↓

Tokyo Verdy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kashiwa Reysol or draw

68%

Kashiwa Reysol or Tokyo Verdy

72%

Draw or Tokyo Verdy

59%

Winning margin

Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+

18%

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals

72%

Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals

37%

Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals

14%

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals

67%

Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals

30%

Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)

56%

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashiwa Reysol at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.37 · 135 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.29 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.85 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kashiwa Reysol scores more

41%

level

28%

Tokyo Verdy scores more

32%

Kashiwa Reysol at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff