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Tokyo Verdy vs Kashiwa Reysol — J1 League 2018

Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol
4/7/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 7Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Tokyo Verdy26%
×Draw26%
Kashiwa Reysol48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokyo Verdy
1.01
Kashiwa Reysol
1.48

Kashiwa Reysol creates 47% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy
0.94
Kashiwa Reysol
1.77

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.20
Kashiwa Reysol
1.08

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.39scores more
Kashiwa Reysol+0.23scores more

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Kashiwa Reysol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw
52%
Tokyo Verdy or Kashiwa Reysol
74%
Draw or Kashiwa Reysol
74%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
9%
Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
64%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
27%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
8%
Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals
77%
Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals
43%
Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
35%
Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.20 · 6 matches

Kashiwa Reysol away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.94 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.77 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more
26%
level
26%
Kashiwa Reysol scores more
48%

Kashiwa Reysol at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tokyo Verdy vs Kashiwa Reysol

Tokyo Verdy and Kashiwa Reysol drew 1-1 in J1 League on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Chōfu.