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Tokyo Verdy vs Blaublitz Akita — J2 League 2018

Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Blaublitz Akita
Blaublitz Akita
9/14/2022J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 36Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Tokyo Verdy42%
×Draw27%
Blaublitz Akita30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokyo Verdy
1.32
Blaublitz Akita
1.08

Tokyo Verdy creates 22% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 101 away

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.36
Blaublitz Akita
1.08

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.08
Blaublitz Akita
1.28

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par
Blaublitz Akita+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Blaublitz Akita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw
70%
Tokyo Verdy or Blaublitz Akita
73%
Draw or Blaublitz Akita
58%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
19%
Blaublitz Akita wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
73%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
38%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
15%
Blaublitz Akita 1+ goals
66%
Blaublitz Akita 2+ goals
29%
Blaublitz Akita 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
58%
Blaublitz Akita (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.08 · 130 matches

Blaublitz Akita away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.28 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.36 + Blaublitz Akita defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.32

Blaublitz Akita attack 1.08 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more
42%
level
27%
Blaublitz Akita scores more
30%

Tokyo Verdy at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tokyo Verdy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Tokyo Verdy 0–2 Blaublitz Akita

Blaublitz Akita beat Tokyo Verdy 2-0 in J2 League on September 14, 2022.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Chōfu.