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Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka — J2 League 2018

Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka
3/21/2018J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 5Ajinomoto Stadium (Chōfu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Tokyo Verdy39%
×Draw28%
Avispa Fukuoka33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokyo Verdy
1.25
Avispa Fukuoka
1.13

Tokyo Verdy creates 11% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 65 away

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.36
Avispa Fukuoka
1.18

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.08
Avispa Fukuoka
1.14

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par
Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Avispa Fukuoka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw
67%
Tokyo Verdy or Avispa Fukuoka
72%
Draw or Avispa Fukuoka
61%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
17%
Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
71%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
36%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
13%
Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals
68%
Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals
31%
Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
54%
Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.08 · 132 matches

Avispa Fukuoka away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.36 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Avispa Fukuoka attack 1.18 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more
39%
level
28%
Avispa Fukuoka scores more
33%

Tokyo Verdy at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tokyo Verdy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka

Tokyo Verdy and Avispa Fukuoka drew 1-1 in J2 League on March 21, 2018.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium (Chōfu).