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Avispa Fukuoka vs Tokyo Verdy — J1 League 2018

Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
7/20/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 24Best Denki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Avispa Fukuoka40%
×Draw29%
Tokyo Verdy30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avispa Fukuoka
1.17
Tokyo Verdy
0.97

Avispa Fukuoka creates 21% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 46 away

creates per match

Avispa Fukuoka
1.03
Tokyo Verdy
0.85

allows per match

Avispa Fukuoka
1.09
Tokyo Verdy
1.30

finishing

Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par
Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avispa Fukuoka ↓

Tokyo Verdy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Avispa Fukuoka or draw
70%
Avispa Fukuoka or Tokyo Verdy
71%
Draw or Tokyo Verdy
60%

Winning margin

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+
17%
Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals
69%
Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals
33%
Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals
11%
Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
62%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
25%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)
57%
Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avispa Fukuoka at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avispa Fukuoka attack 1.03 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.17

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.85 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Avispa Fukuoka scores more
40%
level
29%
Tokyo Verdy scores more
30%

Avispa Fukuoka at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Avispa Fukuoka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avispa Fukuoka vs Tokyo Verdy

Tokyo Verdy beat Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 in J1 League on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Best Denki Stadium in Fukuoka.