Tokushima Vortis 1–0 Tochigi SC: Result & Stats

Tokushima Vortis

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tochigi SC

5/12/2024

J2 League · Round 15Pocari Sweat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Tokushima Vortis46%

×Draw29%

Tochigi SC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tokushima VortisExpected goals in this matchTochigi SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.83

Tokushima Vortis

1.25

Tochigi SC

0.83

Tokushima Vortis creates 51% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 148 away

1.31

creates per match

0.76

0.90

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Tokushima Vortis

1.31

Tochigi SC

0.76

allows per match

Tokushima Vortis

0.90

Tochigi SC

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Tochigi SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokushima Vortis ↓

Tochigi SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Tokushima Vortis or draw

75%

Tokushima Vortis or Tochigi SC

71%

Draw or Tochigi SC

54%

Winning margin

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

21%

Tochigi SC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

71%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

36%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

13%

Tochigi SC 1+ goals

56%

Tochigi SC 2+ goals

20%

Tochigi SC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

65%

Tochigi SC (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokushima Vortis at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.90 · 146 matches

Tochigi SC away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.20 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.31 + Tochigi SC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tochigi SC attack 0.76 + Tokushima Vortis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tokushima Vortis scores more

46%

level

29%

Tochigi SC scores more

25%

Tokushima Vortis at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tokushima Vortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff