Tokushima Vortis 1–2 Roasso Kumamoto

Tokushima Vortis

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Roasso Kumamoto

5/18/2024

J2 League · Round 16Pocari Sweat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Tokushima Vortis44%

×Draw27%

Roasso Kumamoto30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tokushima VortisExpected goals in this matchRoasso Kumamoto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.11

Tokushima Vortis

1.40

Roasso Kumamoto

1.11

Tokushima Vortis creates 26% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 104 away

1.31

creates per match

1.33

0.90

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Tokushima Vortis

1.31

Roasso Kumamoto

1.33

allows per match

Tokushima Vortis

0.90

Roasso Kumamoto

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Roasso Kumamoto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokushima Vortis ↓

Roasso Kumamoto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tokushima Vortis or draw

70%

Tokushima Vortis or Roasso Kumamoto

73%

Draw or Roasso Kumamoto

56%

Winning margin

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

21%

Roasso Kumamoto wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

75%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

41%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

17%

Roasso Kumamoto 1+ goals

67%

Roasso Kumamoto 2+ goals

30%

Roasso Kumamoto 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

59%

Roasso Kumamoto (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokushima Vortis at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.90 · 146 matches

Roasso Kumamoto away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.49 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.31 + Roasso Kumamoto defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.40

Roasso Kumamoto attack 1.33 + Tokushima Vortis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tokushima Vortis scores more

44%

level

27%

Roasso Kumamoto scores more

30%

Tokushima Vortis at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tokushima Vortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff