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Tokushima Vortis vs Montedio Yamagata — J2 League 2018

Tokushima Vortis
Tokushima Vortis
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Montedio Yamagata
Montedio Yamagata
4/28/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 12Pocari Sweat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Tokushima Vortis40%
×Draw28%
Montedio Yamagata32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokushima Vortis
1.23
Montedio Yamagata
1.08

Tokushima Vortis creates 14% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 170 away

creates per match

Tokushima Vortis
1.31
Montedio Yamagata
1.27

allows per match

Tokushima Vortis
0.90
Montedio Yamagata
1.16

finishing

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par
Montedio Yamagata+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokushima Vortis ↓

Montedio Yamagata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tokushima Vortis or draw
68%
Tokushima Vortis or Montedio Yamagata
72%
Draw or Montedio Yamagata
60%

Winning margin

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+
17%
Montedio Yamagata wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals
71%
Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals
35%
Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals
13%
Montedio Yamagata 1+ goals
66%
Montedio Yamagata 2+ goals
29%
Montedio Yamagata 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)
55%
Montedio Yamagata (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokushima Vortis at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.90 · 146 matches

Montedio Yamagata away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.16 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.31 + Montedio Yamagata defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

Montedio Yamagata attack 1.27 + Tokushima Vortis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tokushima Vortis scores more
40%
level
28%
Montedio Yamagata scores more
32%

Tokushima Vortis at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tokushima Vortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Tokushima Vortis 2–1 Montedio Yamagata

Tokushima Vortis beat Montedio Yamagata 2-1 in J2 League on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Pocari Sweat Stadium in Naruto.