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Tokushima Vortis vs Jubilo Iwata — J2 League 2018

Tokushima Vortis
Tokushima Vortis
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jubilo Iwata
Jubilo Iwata
5/25/2025J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 17Pocarisweat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Tokushima Vortis37%
×Draw28%
Jubilo Iwata35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokushima Vortis
1.21
Jubilo Iwata
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 146 home / 84 away

creates per match

Tokushima Vortis
1.31
Jubilo Iwata
1.42

allows per match

Tokushima Vortis
0.90
Jubilo Iwata
1.10

finishing

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par
Jubilo Iwata+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokushima Vortis ↓

Jubilo Iwata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tokushima Vortis or draw
65%
Tokushima Vortis or Jubilo Iwata
72%
Draw or Jubilo Iwata
63%

Winning margin

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+
16%
Jubilo Iwata wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals
70%
Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals
34%
Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals
12%
Jubilo Iwata 1+ goals
69%
Jubilo Iwata 2+ goals
32%
Jubilo Iwata 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)
52%
Jubilo Iwata (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokushima Vortis at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.90 · 146 matches

Jubilo Iwata away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.10 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.31 + Jubilo Iwata defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.21

Jubilo Iwata attack 1.42 + Tokushima Vortis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tokushima Vortis scores more
37%
level
28%
Jubilo Iwata scores more
35%

Tokushima Vortis at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tokushima Vortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tokushima Vortis vs Jubilo Iwata

Tokushima Vortis and Jubilo Iwata drew 1-1 in J2 League on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Pocarisweat Stadium in Naruto.