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Tokushima Vortis vs FC Tokyo — J1 League 2018

Tokushima Vortis
Tokushima Vortis
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
K. Tagawa 5'
6/23/2021J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 19Pocari Sweat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tokushima Vortis29%
×Draw27%
FC Tokyo44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokushima Vortis
1.06
FC Tokyo
1.36

FC Tokyo creates 28% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 149 away

creates per match

Tokushima Vortis
0.86
FC Tokyo
1.15

allows per match

Tokushima Vortis
1.57
FC Tokyo
1.27

finishing

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par
FC Tokyo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokushima Vortis ↓

FC Tokyo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tokushima Vortis or draw
56%
Tokushima Vortis or FC Tokyo
73%
Draw or FC Tokyo
71%

Winning margin

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+
11%
FC Tokyo wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals
65%
Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals
29%
Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals
9%
FC Tokyo 1+ goals
74%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
39%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)
40%
FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokushima Vortis at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

FC Tokyo away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokushima Vortis attack 0.86 + FC Tokyo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.06

FC Tokyo attack 1.15 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tokushima Vortis scores more
29%
level
27%
FC Tokyo scores more
44%

FC Tokyo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
K. TagawaFC TokyoFC Tokyo · F
7.9

Match Events

5'
K. Tagawa
42'
Dušan Cvetinović
46'
K. Sugimori← T. Suzuki
46'
M. Okazaki← S. Okaniwa
56'
Diego Oliveira← H. Mita
57'
Leandro← Y. Takahagi
58'
Ken Iwao
59'
Sodai Hasukawa
63'
M. Watai← Y. Konishi
63'
J. Fujita← C. Battocchio
69'
Adailton← K. Tagawa
80'
K. Bangunagande← K. Nagai
86'
A. Kawata← Y. Kakita

Possession

67%Tokushima

Shots

9Tokushima

Pass accuracy

55%Tokushima

Statistics

TokushimaFC
Overview
67%Possession33%
9Total Shots9
4Corners3
14Fouls14
Shots
9Total Shots9
1On Target2
5Off Target4
3Blocked3
4Inside Box6
5Outside Box3
Passing
67%Possession33%
584Total Passes286
502Accurate Passes203
86%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls14
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

J1 League: Tokushima Vortis 0–1 FC Tokyo

FC Tokyo beat Tokushima Vortis 1-0 in J1 League on June 23, 2021.

Goals: K. Tagawa (5').

Tokushima Vortis controlled possession (67%) and registered 9 shots to 9.

The match was played at Pocari Sweat Stadium in Naruto.