Tokushima Vortis 0–1 Cerezo Osaka: Result & Stats

Tokushima Vortis

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cerezo Osaka

M. Kato 11'

11/3/2021

J1 League · Round 34Pocari Sweat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tokushima Vortis28%

×Draw27%

Cerezo Osaka45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tokushima VortisExpected goals in this matchCerezo Osaka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.41

Tokushima Vortis

1.05

Cerezo Osaka

1.41

Cerezo Osaka creates 34% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 150 away

0.86

creates per match

1.24

1.57

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Tokushima Vortis

0.86

Cerezo Osaka

1.24

allows per match

Tokushima Vortis

1.57

Cerezo Osaka

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Cerezo Osaka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokushima Vortis ↓

Cerezo Osaka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tokushima Vortis or draw

55%

Tokushima Vortis or Cerezo Osaka

73%

Draw or Cerezo Osaka

72%

Winning margin

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

11%

Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

65%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

28%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

9%

Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals

76%

Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals

41%

Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

38%

Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokushima Vortis at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

Cerezo Osaka away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokushima Vortis attack 0.86 + Cerezo Osaka defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.05

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.24 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tokushima Vortis scores more

28%

level

27%

Cerezo Osaka scores more

45%

Cerezo Osaka at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cerezo Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

H. Okuno

Cerezo Osaka · M

8.5

Match Events

2'

Diego

11'

M. Kato↳ H. Okuno

44'

Takeru Kishimoto

46'

T. Suzuki← K. Iwao

58'

Y. Konishi← Y. Kakita

71'

Y. Toyokawa← H. Yamada

71'

H. Kiyotake← T. Inui

81'

K. Sugimori← J. Fujita

81'

A. Sato← M. Bakenga

81'

Riki Matsuda← M. Kato

90'

N. Fujita← H. Okuno

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TokushimaCerezo

Overview

56%Possession44%

6Total Shots11

1Corners5

22Fouls9

Shots

6Total Shots11

1On Target4

4Off Target4

1Blocked3

5Inside Box9

1Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

470Total Passes362

399Accurate Passes276

85%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

22Fouls9

2Yellow Cards0