Tokushima Vortis 1–2 Blaublitz Akita

Tokushima Vortis

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Blaublitz Akita

3/9/2024

J2 League · Round 3Pocari Sweat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Tokushima Vortis43%

×Draw28%

Blaublitz Akita29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tokushima VortisExpected goals in this matchBlaublitz Akita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.99

Tokushima Vortis

1.29

Blaublitz Akita

0.99

Tokushima Vortis creates 30% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 101 away

1.31

creates per match

1.08

0.90

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Tokushima Vortis

1.31

Blaublitz Akita

1.08

allows per match

Tokushima Vortis

0.90

Blaublitz Akita

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Blaublitz Akita+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokushima Vortis ↓

Blaublitz Akita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tokushima Vortis or draw

71%

Tokushima Vortis or Blaublitz Akita

72%

Draw or Blaublitz Akita

57%

Winning margin

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

20%

Blaublitz Akita wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

72%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

37%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

14%

Blaublitz Akita 1+ goals

63%

Blaublitz Akita 2+ goals

26%

Blaublitz Akita 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

60%

Blaublitz Akita (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokushima Vortis at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.90 · 146 matches

Blaublitz Akita away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.28 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.31 + Blaublitz Akita defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Blaublitz Akita attack 1.08 + Tokushima Vortis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tokushima Vortis scores more

43%

level

28%

Blaublitz Akita scores more

29%

Tokushima Vortis at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tokushima Vortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff