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Toi Seng vs Cheng Fung — Primeira Divisão 2026

Toi Seng
Toi Seng
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
Cheng Fung
Cheng Fung
7/16/2023Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 16Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Toi Seng12%
×Draw15%
Cheng Fung73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toi Seng
1.19
Cheng Fung
3.01

Cheng Fung creates 153% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 35 away

creates per match

Toi Seng
1.00
Cheng Fung
1.89

allows per match

Toi Seng
4.13
Cheng Fung
1.37

finishing

Toi Seng+0.00on par
Cheng Fung+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toi Seng ↓

Cheng Fung →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Toi Seng or draw
27%
Toi Seng or Cheng Fung
85%
Draw or Cheng Fung
88%

Winning margin

Toi Seng wins by 2+
4%
Cheng Fung wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Toi Seng 1+ goals
70%
Toi Seng 2+ goals
33%
Toi Seng 3+ goals
12%
Cheng Fung 1+ goals
95%
Cheng Fung 2+ goals
80%
Cheng Fung 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Toi Seng (draw refunded)
14%
Cheng Fung (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toi Seng at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.13 · 8 matches

Cheng Fung away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toi Seng attack 1.00 + Cheng Fung defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.19

Cheng Fung attack 1.89 + Toi Seng defence 4.13 → ÷2 → 3.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Toi Seng scores more
12%
level
15%
Cheng Fung scores more
73%

Cheng Fung at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Cheng Fung will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Toi Seng vs Cheng Fung

Cheng Fung beat Toi Seng 6-1 in Primeira Divisão on July 16, 2023.

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium in Taipa.