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Togo vs Sudan — Friendlies 2026

Togo
Togo
FT
1 – 1
Sudan
Sudan
10/12/2020FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Stade Olympique d'El Menzah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Togo59%
×Draw26%
Sudan16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Togo
1.53
Sudan
0.65

Togo creates 135% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

creates per match

Togo
1.88
Sudan
0.55

allows per match

Togo
0.75
Sudan
1.18

finishing

Togo+0.00on par
Sudan+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Togo ↓

Sudan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Togo or draw
84%
Togo or Sudan
74%
Draw or Sudan
41%

Winning margin

Togo wins by 2+
31%
Sudan wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Togo 1+ goals
78%
Togo 2+ goals
45%
Togo 3+ goals
20%
Sudan 1+ goals
48%
Sudan 2+ goals
14%
Sudan 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Togo (draw refunded)
79%
Sudan (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Togo at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Sudan away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Togo attack 1.88 + Sudan defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.53

Sudan attack 0.55 + Togo defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Togo scores more
59%
level
26%
Sudan scores more
16%

Togo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Togo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Togo vs Sudan

Togo and Sudan drew 1-1 in Friendlies on October 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Olympique d'El Menzah in Tunis.