Togo 3–0 Sierra Leone: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Togo

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sierra Leone

3/24/2022

Friendlies · Friendlies 3Mardan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Togo70%

×Draw19%

Sierra Leone11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TogoExpected goals in this matchSierra Leone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

0.65

Togo

2.05

Sierra Leone

0.65

Togo creates 215% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

1.88

creates per match

0.54

0.75

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Togo

1.88

Sierra Leone

0.54

allows per match

Togo

0.75

Sierra Leone

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Togo+0.00on par

Sierra Leone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Togo ↓

Sierra Leone →

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Togo or draw

89%

Togo or Sierra Leone

81%

Draw or Sierra Leone

30%

Winning margin

Togo wins by 2+

45%

Sierra Leone wins by 2+

Team goals

Togo 1+ goals

87%

Togo 2+ goals

61%

Togo 3+ goals

33%

Sierra Leone 1+ goals

48%

Sierra Leone 2+ goals

14%

Sierra Leone 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Togo (draw refunded)

87%

Sierra Leone (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Togo at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Sierra Leone away — creates 0.54, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Togo attack 1.88 + Sierra Leone defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.05

Sierra Leone attack 0.54 + Togo defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

Togo scores more

70%

level

19%

Sierra Leone scores more

11%

Togo at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Togo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff