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Togo vs Lesotho — Friendlies 2026

Togo
Togo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Lesotho
Lesotho
6/14/2023FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Wits Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Togo62%
×Draw23%
Lesotho15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Togo
1.71
Lesotho
0.70

Togo creates 144% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

creates per match

Togo
1.88
Lesotho
0.64

allows per match

Togo
0.75
Lesotho
1.55

finishing

Togo+0.00on par
Lesotho+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Togo ↓

Lesotho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Togo or draw
85%
Togo or Lesotho
77%
Draw or Lesotho
38%

Winning margin

Togo wins by 2+
35%
Lesotho wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Togo 1+ goals
82%
Togo 2+ goals
51%
Togo 3+ goals
24%
Lesotho 1+ goals
50%
Lesotho 2+ goals
16%
Lesotho 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Togo (draw refunded)
80%
Lesotho (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Togo at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Lesotho away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Togo attack 1.88 + Lesotho defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.71

Lesotho attack 0.64 + Togo defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Togo scores more
62%
level
23%
Lesotho scores more
15%

Togo at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Togo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Togo vs Lesotho

Togo beat Lesotho 2-0 in Friendlies on June 14, 2023.

The match was played at Wits Football Stadium in Johannesburg, GA.