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Togo vs Ivory Coast — Friendlies 2026

Togo
Togo
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Ivory Coast
Ivory Coast
3/24/2018FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Stade Pierre Brisson (Beauvais)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Togo46%
×Draw27%
Ivory Coast27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Togo
1.41
Ivory Coast
1.01

Togo creates 40% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 15 away

creates per match

Togo
1.88
Ivory Coast
1.27

allows per match

Togo
0.75
Ivory Coast
0.93

finishing

Togo+0.00on par
Ivory Coast+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Togo ↓

Ivory Coast →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Togo or draw
73%
Togo or Ivory Coast
73%
Draw or Ivory Coast
54%

Winning margin

Togo wins by 2+
22%
Ivory Coast wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Togo 1+ goals
76%
Togo 2+ goals
41%
Togo 3+ goals
17%
Ivory Coast 1+ goals
64%
Ivory Coast 2+ goals
27%
Ivory Coast 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Togo (draw refunded)
63%
Ivory Coast (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Togo at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Ivory Coast away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Togo attack 1.88 + Ivory Coast defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.41

Ivory Coast attack 1.27 + Togo defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Togo scores more
46%
level
27%
Ivory Coast scores more
27%

Togo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Togo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Togo 2–2 Ivory Coast

Togo and Ivory Coast drew 2-2 in Friendlies on March 24, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Pierre Brisson (Beauvais).