Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Togo vs Gambia — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Togo
Togo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gambia
Gambia
A. Denkey 84'
A. Ceesay 7'
10/12/2018Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 4Stade de Kégué (Lomé)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Togo27%
×Draw31%
Gambia42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Togo
0.83
Gambia
1.12

Gambia creates 35% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Togo
0.67
Gambia
0.57

allows per match

Togo
1.67
Gambia
1.00

finishing

Togo+0.00on par
Gambia+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Togo ↓

Gambia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Togo or draw
58%
Togo or Gambia
69%
Draw or Gambia
73%

Winning margin

Togo wins by 2+
9%
Gambia wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Togo 1+ goals
56%
Togo 2+ goals
20%
Togo 3+ goals
5%
Gambia 1+ goals
67%
Gambia 2+ goals
31%
Gambia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Togo (draw refunded)
39%
Gambia (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Togo at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Gambia away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Togo attack 0.67 + Gambia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Gambia attack 0.57 + Togo defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Togo scores more
27%
level
31%
Gambia scores more
42%

Gambia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gambia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
A. Ceesay
84'
A. Denkey

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Togo vs Gambia

Togo and Gambia drew 1-1 in Africa Cup of Nations on October 12, 2018.

Goals: A. Ceesay (7'), A. Denkey (84').

The match was played at Stade de Kégué (Lomé).