Togo 5–1 Benin: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Togo

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Benin

K. Laba 88'

K. Denkey 74'

Djene 68'

K. Komlavi 58'

M. Tijani 39' (OG)

F. Santos 6'

6/9/2026

Friendlies · Friendly InternationalStade El Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Togo52%

×Draw25%

Benin22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TogoExpected goals in this matchBenin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.94

Togo

1.58

Benin

0.94

Togo creates 68% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

1.88

creates per match

1.14

0.75

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Togo

1.88

Benin

1.14

allows per match

Togo

0.75

Benin

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Togo+0.00on par

Benin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Togo ↓

Benin →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Togo or draw

78%

Togo or Benin

75%

Draw or Benin

48%

Winning margin

Togo wins by 2+

27%

Benin wins by 2+

Team goals

Togo 1+ goals

79%

Togo 2+ goals

47%

Togo 3+ goals

21%

Benin 1+ goals

61%

Benin 2+ goals

24%

Benin 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Togo (draw refunded)

70%

Benin (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Togo at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Benin away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Togo attack 1.88 + Benin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.58

Benin attack 1.14 + Togo defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Togo scores more

52%

level

25%

Benin scores more

22%

Togo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Togo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

F. Santos

20'

K. Boateng

22'

A. Samadou

22'

39'

M. TijaniOwn goal

50'

A. Samadou

50'

A. Samadou

50'

M. Tijani

53'

G. Ahoudo← J. Olugbade

58'

K. Komlavi↳ Djene

63'

68'

72'

72'

73'

74'

K. Denkey

74'

K. Denkey↳ D. Karim

76'

Y. Sankoutcha← F. Sana

76'

88'

89'

90'

Togo

Benin

🥅

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽A

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Denkey

⚽

Komlavi

76'▲Y. Sankoutcha←▼F. Sana

76'▲K. Laba←▼K. Denkey

89'▲M. Kpelafia←▼Djene

90'▲K. Agno←▼P. Nadjombe

Togo substitutes

16Barcola23Yaya30Mensah12Sankoutcha6Kpelafia15Akakpo11Abi2Akueson9Laba20Boma14Aholou25Agno

Manager: Gernot Rohr

53'▲G. Ahoudo←▼J. Olugbade

63'▲Y. Ouorou←▼F. Santos

72'▲R. Amoussou←▼D. Dodo

72'▲J. Dossou←▼S. Ngobi

Benin substitutes

AhoudoOuorouAmoussouDossou

Togo 5 – 1 Benin

Togo beat Benin 5-1 in Friendlies on June 9, 2026.

Goals: F. Santos (6'), M. Tijani (39' o.g.), K. Komlavi (58'), Djene (68'), K. Denkey (74'), K. Laba (88').

The match was played at Stade El Bachir in Mohammedia.

Togo vs Benin — Friendlies 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Togo 5 – 1 Benin