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Togo vs Benin — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Togo
Togo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Benin
Benin
9/9/2018Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 3Stade de Kégué (Lomé)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Togo38%
×Draw30%
Benin32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Togo
1.08
Benin
0.96

Togo creates 13% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Togo
0.67
Benin
0.25

allows per match

Togo
1.67
Benin
1.50

finishing

Togo+0.00on par
Benin+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Togo ↓

Benin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Togo or draw
68%
Togo or Benin
70%
Draw or Benin
62%

Winning margin

Togo wins by 2+
15%
Benin wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Togo 1+ goals
66%
Togo 2+ goals
29%
Togo 3+ goals
10%
Benin 1+ goals
62%
Benin 2+ goals
25%
Benin 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Togo (draw refunded)
54%
Benin (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Togo at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Benin away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Togo attack 0.67 + Benin defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Benin attack 0.25 + Togo defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Togo scores more
38%
level
30%
Benin scores more
32%

Togo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Togo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Togo 0 – 0 Benin

Togo and Benin drew 0-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on September 9, 2018.

The match was played at Stade de Kégué (Lomé).