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TOGB vs Sportlust '46 — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

TOGB
TOGB
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sportlust '46
Sportlust '46
11/11/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 12Sportpark Het Hoge Land Veld 1 Berkel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

TOGB45%
×Draw24%
Sportlust '4631%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TOGB
1.63
Sportlust '46
1.32

TOGB creates 23% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

TOGB
2.03
Sportlust '46
1.35

allows per match

TOGB
1.29
Sportlust '46
1.24

finishing

TOGB+0.00on par
Sportlust '46+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TOGB ↓

Sportlust '46 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

TOGB or draw
69%
TOGB or Sportlust '46
76%
Draw or Sportlust '46
55%

Winning margin

TOGB wins by 2+
23%
Sportlust '46 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

TOGB 1+ goals
80%
TOGB 2+ goals
48%
TOGB 3+ goals
22%
Sportlust '46 1+ goals
73%
Sportlust '46 2+ goals
38%
Sportlust '46 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

TOGB (draw refunded)
59%
Sportlust '46 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TOGB at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.29 · 68 matches

Sportlust '46 away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TOGB attack 2.03 + Sportlust '46 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.63

Sportlust '46 attack 1.35 + TOGB defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

TOGB scores more
45%
level
24%
Sportlust '46 scores more
31%

TOGB at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "TOGB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: TOGB 1–0 Sportlust '46

TOGB beat Sportlust '46 1-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Het Hoge Land Veld 1 Berkel in Berkel en Rodenrijs.