TOGB 1–1 Groene Ster: Result & Stats

TOGB

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Groene Ster

1/29/2023

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 20Sportpark Het Hoge Land Veld 1 Berkel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

TOGB56%

×Draw22%

Groene Ster22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TOGBExpected goals in this matchGroene Ster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.11

TOGB

1.93

Groene Ster

1.11

TOGB creates 74% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 81 away

2.03

creates per match

0.94

1.29

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

TOGB

2.03

Groene Ster

0.94

allows per match

TOGB

1.29

Groene Ster

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TOGB+0.00on par

Groene Ster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TOGB ↓

Groene Ster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

TOGB or draw

78%

TOGB or Groene Ster

78%

Draw or Groene Ster

44%

Winning margin

TOGB wins by 2+

33%

Groene Ster wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

TOGB 1+ goals

85%

TOGB 2+ goals

57%

TOGB 3+ goals

30%

Groene Ster 1+ goals

67%

Groene Ster 2+ goals

30%

Groene Ster 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

TOGB (draw refunded)

72%

Groene Ster (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TOGB at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.29 · 68 matches

Groene Ster away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.83 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TOGB attack 2.03 + Groene Ster defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.93

Groene Ster attack 0.94 + TOGB defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

TOGB scores more

56%

level

22%

Groene Ster scores more

22%

TOGB at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "TOGB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff