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TOGB vs Blauw Geel — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

TOGB
TOGB
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Blauw Geel
Blauw Geel
5/25/2024Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 34Sportpark Het Hoge Land Veld 1 Berkel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

TOGB45%
×Draw23%
Blauw Geel32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TOGB
1.78
Blauw Geel
1.46

TOGB creates 22% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 100 away

creates per match

TOGB
2.03
Blauw Geel
1.64

allows per match

TOGB
1.29
Blauw Geel
1.53

finishing

TOGB+0.00on par
Blauw Geel+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TOGB ↓

Blauw Geel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

TOGB or draw
68%
TOGB or Blauw Geel
77%
Draw or Blauw Geel
55%

Winning margin

TOGB wins by 2+
24%
Blauw Geel wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

TOGB 1+ goals
83%
TOGB 2+ goals
53%
TOGB 3+ goals
26%
Blauw Geel 1+ goals
77%
Blauw Geel 2+ goals
43%
Blauw Geel 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

TOGB (draw refunded)
59%
Blauw Geel (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TOGB at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.29 · 68 matches

Blauw Geel away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.53 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TOGB attack 2.03 + Blauw Geel defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.78

Blauw Geel attack 1.64 + TOGB defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

TOGB scores more
45%
level
23%
Blauw Geel scores more
32%

TOGB at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "TOGB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TOGB vs Blauw Geel

TOGB and Blauw Geel drew 0-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Het Hoge Land Veld 1 Berkel in Berkel en Rodenrijs.