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TOGB vs Baronie — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

TOGB
TOGB
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Baronie
Baronie
2/3/2024Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 21Sportpark Het Hoge Land Veld 1 Berkel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

TOGB60%
×Draw20%
Baronie20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TOGB
2.29
Baronie
1.25

TOGB creates 83% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

creates per match

TOGB
2.03
Baronie
1.21

allows per match

TOGB
1.29
Baronie
2.56

finishing

TOGB+0.00on par
Baronie+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TOGB ↓

Baronie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

TOGB or draw
80%
TOGB or Baronie
80%
Draw or Baronie
40%

Winning margin

TOGB wins by 2+
38%
Baronie wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

TOGB 1+ goals
90%
TOGB 2+ goals
66%
TOGB 3+ goals
40%
Baronie 1+ goals
71%
Baronie 2+ goals
36%
Baronie 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

TOGB (draw refunded)
75%
Baronie (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TOGB at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.29 · 68 matches

Baronie away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TOGB attack 2.03 + Baronie defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.29

Baronie attack 1.21 + TOGB defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

TOGB scores more
60%
level
20%
Baronie scores more
20%

TOGB at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "TOGB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: TOGB 2–0 Baronie

TOGB beat Baronie 2-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Het Hoge Land Veld 1 Berkel in Berkel en Rodenrijs.