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Tochovice vs Vysoké Mýto — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Tochovice
Tochovice
FT
0 – 6
Vysoké Mýto
Vysoké Mýto
8/21/20214. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 4Stadion Tochovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tochovice32%
×Draw21%
Vysoké Mýto47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tochovice
1.79
Vysoké Mýto
2.19

Vysoké Mýto creates 22% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 72 away

creates per match

Tochovice
2.27
Vysoké Mýto
2.10

allows per match

Tochovice
2.27
Vysoké Mýto
1.32

finishing

Tochovice+0.00on par
Vysoké Mýto+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tochovice ↓

Vysoké Mýto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Tochovice or draw
53%
Tochovice or Vysoké Mýto
79%
Draw or Vysoké Mýto
68%

Winning margin

Tochovice wins by 2+
16%
Vysoké Mýto wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Tochovice 1+ goals
83%
Tochovice 2+ goals
53%
Tochovice 3+ goals
26%
Vysoké Mýto 1+ goals
89%
Vysoké Mýto 2+ goals
64%
Vysoké Mýto 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Tochovice (draw refunded)
41%
Vysoké Mýto (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tochovice at home — creates 2.27, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

Vysoké Mýto away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.32 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tochovice attack 2.27 + Vysoké Mýto defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.79

Vysoké Mýto attack 2.10 + Tochovice defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tochovice scores more
32%
level
21%
Vysoké Mýto scores more
47%

Vysoké Mýto at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vysoké Mýto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Tochovice 0–6 Vysoké Mýto

Vysoké Mýto beat Tochovice 6-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Tochovice in Tochovice.