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Tochovice vs Sparta Kutná Hora — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Tochovice
Tochovice
FT
3 – 7
HT: 2 – 3
Sparta Kutná Hora
Sparta Kutná Hora
5/18/20224. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 20Stadion Tochovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tochovice65%
×Draw16%
Sparta Kutná Hora19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tochovice
3.10
Sparta Kutná Hora
1.67

Tochovice creates 86% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 27 away

creates per match

Tochovice
2.27
Sparta Kutná Hora
1.07

allows per match

Tochovice
2.27
Sparta Kutná Hora
3.93

finishing

Tochovice+0.00on par
Sparta Kutná Hora+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tochovice ↓

Sparta Kutná Hora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Tochovice or draw
81%
Tochovice or Sparta Kutná Hora
84%
Draw or Sparta Kutná Hora
35%

Winning margin

Tochovice wins by 2+
46%
Sparta Kutná Hora wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tochovice 1+ goals
95%
Tochovice 2+ goals
81%
Tochovice 3+ goals
58%
Sparta Kutná Hora 1+ goals
81%
Sparta Kutná Hora 2+ goals
50%
Sparta Kutná Hora 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Tochovice (draw refunded)
78%
Sparta Kutná Hora (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tochovice at home — creates 2.27, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

Sparta Kutná Hora away — creates 1.07, concedes 3.93 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tochovice attack 2.27 + Sparta Kutná Hora defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 3.10

Sparta Kutná Hora attack 1.07 + Tochovice defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Tochovice scores more
65%
level
16%
Sparta Kutná Hora scores more
19%

Tochovice at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Tochovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tochovice vs Sparta Kutná Hora

Sparta Kutná Hora beat Tochovice 7-3 in 4. liga - Divizie C on May 18, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Tochovice in Tochovice.