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Tochovice vs Rokycany — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Tochovice
Tochovice
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Rokycany
Rokycany
4/1/20234. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 20Stadion Tochovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tochovice40%
×Draw22%
Rokycany38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tochovice
1.79
Rokycany
1.74

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 86 away

creates per match

Tochovice
1.80
Rokycany
1.28

allows per match

Tochovice
2.20
Rokycany
1.77

finishing

Tochovice+0.00on par
Rokycany+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tochovice ↓

Rokycany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Tochovice or draw
62%
Tochovice or Rokycany
78%
Draw or Rokycany
60%

Winning margin

Tochovice wins by 2+
21%
Rokycany wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Tochovice 1+ goals
83%
Tochovice 2+ goals
53%
Tochovice 3+ goals
26%
Rokycany 1+ goals
82%
Rokycany 2+ goals
52%
Rokycany 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Tochovice (draw refunded)
51%
Rokycany (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tochovice at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Rokycany away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.77 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tochovice attack 1.80 + Rokycany defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.79

Rokycany attack 1.28 + Tochovice defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tochovice scores more
40%
level
22%
Rokycany scores more
38%

Tochovice at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tochovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Tochovice 3–0 Rokycany

Tochovice beat Rokycany 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Tochovice in Tochovice.