Tochovice 5–1 Poříčany: Result & Stats

Tochovice

FT

5 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Poříčany

3/26/2022

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 18Stadion Tochovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tochovice57%

×Draw19%

Poříčany24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TochoviceExpected goals in this matchPoříčany

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

1.59

Tochovice

2.52

Poříčany

1.59

Tochovice creates 58% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 26 away

2.27

creates per match

0.92

2.27

allows per match

2.77

creates per match

Tochovice

2.27

Poříčany

0.92

allows per match

Tochovice

2.27

Poříčany

2.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tochovice+0.00on par

Poříčany+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tochovice ↓

Poříčany →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Tochovice or draw

76%

Tochovice or Poříčany

81%

Draw or Poříčany

43%

Winning margin

Tochovice wins by 2+

37%

Poříčany wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tochovice 1+ goals

92%

Tochovice 2+ goals

71%

Tochovice 3+ goals

45%

Poříčany 1+ goals

80%

Poříčany 2+ goals

47%

Poříčany 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Tochovice (draw refunded)

71%

Poříčany (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tochovice at home — creates 2.27, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

Poříčany away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.77 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tochovice attack 2.27 + Poříčany defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.52

Poříčany attack 0.92 + Tochovice defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tochovice scores more

57%

level

19%

Poříčany scores more

24%

Tochovice at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Tochovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff