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Tochovice vs Hlinsko — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Tochovice
Tochovice
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hlinsko
Hlinsko
5/29/20224. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 27Stadion Tochovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tochovice49%
×Draw20%
Hlinsko31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tochovice
2.29
Hlinsko
1.81

Tochovice creates 27% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 69 away

creates per match

Tochovice
2.27
Hlinsko
1.35

allows per match

Tochovice
2.27
Hlinsko
2.30

finishing

Tochovice+0.00on par
Hlinsko+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tochovice ↓

Hlinsko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Tochovice or draw
69%
Tochovice or Hlinsko
80%
Draw or Hlinsko
51%

Winning margin

Tochovice wins by 2+
29%
Hlinsko wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tochovice 1+ goals
90%
Tochovice 2+ goals
66%
Tochovice 3+ goals
40%
Hlinsko 1+ goals
84%
Hlinsko 2+ goals
54%
Hlinsko 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Tochovice (draw refunded)
61%
Hlinsko (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tochovice at home — creates 2.27, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

Hlinsko away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.30 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tochovice attack 2.27 + Hlinsko defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.29

Hlinsko attack 1.35 + Tochovice defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tochovice scores more
49%
level
20%
Hlinsko scores more
31%

Tochovice at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tochovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tochovice vs Hlinsko

Tochovice beat Hlinsko 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on May 29, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Tochovice in Tochovice.