Tochovice 1–1 Dvůr Králové: Result & Stats

Tochovice

FT

1 – 1

Dvůr Králové

9/28/2021

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 15Stadion Tochovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tochovice51%

×Draw20%

Dvůr Králové29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TochoviceExpected goals in this matchDvůr Králové

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.69

Tochovice

2.27

Dvůr Králové

1.69

Tochovice creates 34% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 40 away

2.27

creates per match

1.10

2.27

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Tochovice

2.27

Dvůr Králové

1.10

allows per match

Tochovice

2.27

Dvůr Králové

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tochovice+0.00on par

Dvůr Králové+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tochovice ↓

Dvůr Králové →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Tochovice or draw

71%

Tochovice or Dvůr Králové

80%

Draw or Dvůr Králové

49%

Winning margin

Tochovice wins by 2+

31%

Dvůr Králové wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tochovice 1+ goals

90%

Tochovice 2+ goals

66%

Tochovice 3+ goals

39%

Dvůr Králové 1+ goals

82%

Dvůr Králové 2+ goals

50%

Dvůr Králové 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Tochovice (draw refunded)

64%

Dvůr Králové (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tochovice at home — creates 2.27, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

Dvůr Králové away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.27 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tochovice attack 2.27 + Dvůr Králové defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.27

Dvůr Králové attack 1.10 + Tochovice defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tochovice scores more

51%

level

20%

Dvůr Králové scores more

29%

Tochovice at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tochovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff