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Tochovice vs Čáslav — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Tochovice
Tochovice
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Čáslav
Čáslav
5/14/20224. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 25Stadion Tochovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tochovice46%
×Draw21%
Čáslav34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tochovice
2.16
Čáslav
1.84

Tochovice creates 17% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 69 away

creates per match

Tochovice
2.27
Čáslav
1.41

allows per match

Tochovice
2.27
Čáslav
2.04

finishing

Tochovice+0.00on par
Čáslav+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tochovice ↓

Čáslav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Tochovice or draw
66%
Tochovice or Čáslav
79%
Draw or Čáslav
54%

Winning margin

Tochovice wins by 2+
26%
Čáslav wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tochovice 1+ goals
88%
Tochovice 2+ goals
63%
Tochovice 3+ goals
36%
Čáslav 1+ goals
84%
Čáslav 2+ goals
55%
Čáslav 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Tochovice (draw refunded)
58%
Čáslav (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tochovice at home — creates 2.27, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

Čáslav away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.04 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tochovice attack 2.27 + Čáslav defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.16

Čáslav attack 1.41 + Tochovice defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tochovice scores more
46%
level
21%
Čáslav scores more
34%

Tochovice at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tochovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Tochovice 3–0 Čáslav

Tochovice beat Čáslav 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Tochovice in Tochovice.