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Tochigi SC vs Tokyo Verdy — J2 League 2018

Tochigi SC
Tochigi SC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
8/21/2021J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 26Tochigi Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Tochigi SC33%
×Draw28%
Tokyo Verdy39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tochigi SC
1.12
Tokyo Verdy
1.25

Tokyo Verdy creates 12% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 130 away

creates per match

Tochigi SC
0.99
Tokyo Verdy
1.38

allows per match

Tochigi SC
1.11
Tokyo Verdy
1.25

finishing

Tochigi SC+0.00on par
Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tochigi SC ↓

Tokyo Verdy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tochigi SC or draw
61%
Tochigi SC or Tokyo Verdy
72%
Draw or Tokyo Verdy
67%

Winning margin

Tochigi SC wins by 2+
13%
Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tochigi SC 1+ goals
67%
Tochigi SC 2+ goals
31%
Tochigi SC 3+ goals
10%
Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
71%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
36%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tochigi SC (draw refunded)
46%
Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tochigi SC at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.11 · 147 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tochigi SC attack 0.99 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.12

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.38 + Tochigi SC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tochigi SC scores more
33%
level
28%
Tokyo Verdy scores more
39%

Tokyo Verdy at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tokyo Verdy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tochigi SC vs Tokyo Verdy

Tochigi SC and Tokyo Verdy drew 2-2 in J2 League on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Tochigi Green Stadium in Utsunomiya.