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Tochigi SC vs Tokushima Vortis — J2 League 2018

Tochigi SC
Tochigi SC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tokushima Vortis
Tokushima Vortis
9/9/2020J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 18Tochigi Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Tochigi SC31%
×Draw29%
Tokushima Vortis39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tochigi SC
1.00
Tokushima Vortis
1.15

Tokushima Vortis creates 15% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 147 away

creates per match

Tochigi SC
0.99
Tokushima Vortis
1.19

allows per match

Tochigi SC
1.11
Tokushima Vortis
1.02

finishing

Tochigi SC+0.00on par
Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tochigi SC ↓

Tokushima Vortis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tochigi SC or draw
61%
Tochigi SC or Tokushima Vortis
71%
Draw or Tokushima Vortis
69%

Winning margin

Tochigi SC wins by 2+
12%
Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tochigi SC 1+ goals
63%
Tochigi SC 2+ goals
26%
Tochigi SC 3+ goals
8%
Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals
68%
Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals
32%
Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tochigi SC (draw refunded)
45%
Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tochigi SC at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.11 · 147 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tochigi SC attack 0.99 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.00

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.19 + Tochigi SC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tochigi SC scores more
31%
level
29%
Tokushima Vortis scores more
39%

Tokushima Vortis at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tokushima Vortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Tochigi SC 0–1 Tokushima Vortis

Tokushima Vortis beat Tochigi SC 1-0 in J2 League on September 9, 2020.

The match was played at Tochigi Green Stadium in Utsunomiya.