Tochigi SC 1–1 Oita Trinita: Result & Stats

Tochigi SC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Oita Trinita

10/22/2023

J2 League · Round 39Kanseki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Tochigi SC37%

×Draw28%

Oita Trinita35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tochigi SCExpected goals in this matchOita Trinita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.15

Tochigi SC

1.19

Oita Trinita

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 147 home / 103 away

0.99

creates per match

1.18

1.11

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Tochigi SC

0.99

Oita Trinita

1.18

allows per match

Tochigi SC

1.11

Oita Trinita

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tochigi SC+0.00on par

Oita Trinita+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tochigi SC ↓

Oita Trinita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tochigi SC or draw

65%

Tochigi SC or Oita Trinita

72%

Draw or Oita Trinita

63%

Winning margin

Tochigi SC wins by 2+

16%

Oita Trinita wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tochigi SC 1+ goals

70%

Tochigi SC 2+ goals

33%

Tochigi SC 3+ goals

12%

Oita Trinita 1+ goals

68%

Oita Trinita 2+ goals

32%

Oita Trinita 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tochigi SC (draw refunded)

51%

Oita Trinita (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tochigi SC at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.11 · 147 matches

Oita Trinita away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.38 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tochigi SC attack 0.99 + Oita Trinita defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Oita Trinita attack 1.18 + Tochigi SC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tochigi SC scores more

37%

level

28%

Oita Trinita scores more

35%

Tochigi SC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tochigi SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff